WrestleStat Week 4 Rankings – 2016-2017 Season

Not many significant changes to report this week for the rankings. Teams and wrestlers are starting to go up against other other division I opponents so we’re starting to see the tournament rankings take shape with projected bonus points.

One of those teams affected by that is Oklahoma State as they’ve now re-claimed the top spot in the tournament rankings. Virginia Tech has slid down to #5, while Ohio State and Iowa both move up one spot to take over #3 and #4 respectively.

In the dual rankings, Cornell has dropped 12 spots, but that’s mainly due to backups being set as the starters at 125 and 157 while the starters wait to return to the lineup.

One thing I added this week is the new “Hodge Watch”. I’ve implemented a formula to try to help predict who this years Hodge Winner will be. Do you agree with the top guys listed?

Wrestler Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

Dual Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

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Weekend Upsets with WrestleStat – Week 4 2016-2017

This is the second installment of the Weekend Upsets segment. There’s a very small list of upsets this week because of the holiday weekend, and not as much action going on (just wait until next weekend!).

There are 6 upsets that fall on this list, but there’s 1 that I personally don’t consider to be all that much of an upset.

In my opinion, the biggest upset of the weekend came from #43 James Benjamin of Buffalo beating #5 Brett Harner of Princeton in sudden victory in their dual. Benjamin should see a decent boost in his ranking that comes out tomorrow as a result of this win.

197 – #43 James Benjamin (Buffalo) beat #5 Brett Harner (Princeton) by SV-1 7 – 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13108/benjamin-james/profile

The one match that wasn’t all that surprising to me was Cornell’s #52 Mark Grey beating #13 Tyson Dippery of Rutgers. I don’t know why, but I’ve always felt Grey was a top 20 kid (I guess his redshirt season is still stuck in my head). You have to wonder if the move up to 141 his junior season is the reason why he’s still ranked as low as he is. I see him continuing to rise through the season to end up in the top 20 again.

133 – #52 Mark Grey (Cornell) beat #13 Tyson Dippery (Rutgers) by DEC 6 – 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12040/grey-mark/profile

Here’s the remaining upsets that occurred over the weekend that are worth noting:

285 – #18 Austin Schafer (Oklahoma State) beat #6 Michael Kroells (Minnesota) by DEC 3 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13112/schafer-austin/profile
184 – #33 Drew Foster (Northern Iowa) beat #12 Jack Dechow (Old Dominion) by DEC 6 – 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20212/foster-drew/profile
141 – #28 Timmy Box (Northern Colorado) beat #12 Gabe Moreno (Iowa State) by MD 12 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/14724/box-timmy/profile
141 – #81 Jake Hodges (Northern Iowa) beat #18 Emilio Saavedra (Old Dominion) by DEC 6 – 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/11666/hodges-jake/profile

Week 4 Dual Comparisons – 2016-2017

Small slate of matchups over Thanksgiving weekend. I went ahead and took care of all the food that these wrestlers had to skip out on.

11/26 #58 Northern Colorado vs #11 Iowa State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/50/northern-colorado/35/iowa-state

11/26 #63 Bloomsburg vs #50 Michigan State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/7/bloomsburg/41/michigan-state

11/26 #68 Lock Haven vs #50 Michigan State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/38/lock-haven/41/michigan-state

11/27 #47 Appalachian State vs #26 North Carolina http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/3/appalachian-state/46/north-carolina

11/27 #20 Minnesota vs #1 Oklahoma State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/42/minnesota/57/oklahoma-state

11/27 #18 Northern Iowa vs #27 Old Dominion http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/52/northern-iowa/58/old-dominion

11/27 #65 Columbia vs #13 Rutgers http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/19/columbia/66/rutgers

11/27 #7 Cornell vs #13 Rutgers http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/20/cornell/66/rutgers

11/27 #36 Wyoming vs #11 Iowa State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/78/wyoming/35/iowa-state

11/27 #65 Columbia vs #44 Maryland http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/19/columbia/39/maryland

11/27 #28 Princeton vs #44 Maryland http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/63/princeton/39/maryland

11/27 #28 Princeton vs #52 Buffalo http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/63/princeton/12/buffalo

11/27 #52 Buffalo vs #69 George Mason http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/12/buffalo/29/george-mason

11/27 #7 Cornell vs #71 Hofstra http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/20/cornell/31/hofstra

11/27 #69 George Mason vs #71 Hofstra http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/29/george-mason/31/hofstra

11/27 #37 Purdue vs #4 Iowa http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/64/purdue/34/iowa

11/29 #40 Northern Illinois vs #27 Old Dominion http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/51/northern-illinois/58/old-dominion

11/30 #12 North Carolina State vs #47 Appalachian State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/47/north-carolina-state/3/appalachian-state

Weekend Upsets with WrestleStat – Week 3

(see what I did there :))

With the new architecture of the WrestleStat website, I’m able to do a lot more stuff. I have many reports that I monitor for stuff that needs attention, as well as the general status of schools and wrestlers to try and catch any discrepancies (although I’m sometimes behind on weight changes…).

One of these reports that I got the idea for is big upsets that have occurred. In years past, they’d go un-noticed unless you were specifically looking for a wrestler in the rankings and spot a big move up. Now, this is automated for me (because I’m trying to do as little work as possible on the site and just enjoy it).

So, on a weekly basis, when I have time, I’ll start highlighting some of the big upsets that occurred over the weekend/last week. Here we go…

#83 Matt Kolodzik beat #5 Anthony Ashnault by DEC 4 – 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45071/kolodzik-matt/profile

#17 Kevin Devoy Jr beat #5 Jered Cortez by DEC 5 – 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12047/devoy-jr-kevin/profile

#30 Colton McCrystal beat #6 Bryce Meredith by DEC 6 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13191/mccrystal-colton/profile

#40 Steban Cervantes beat #7 Tom Sleigh by DEC 3 – 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20597/cervantes-steban/profile

#20 Jonce Blaylock beat #9 Geordan Martinez by DEC 5 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20266/blaylock-jonce/profile

#22 Jacobe Smith beat #10 Zac Brunson by FALL 6:15 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/45156/smith-jacobe/profile

#19 Alex Griffin beat #10 Paul Fox by DEC 5 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13525/griffin-alex/profile

#19 Alex Griffin beat #10 Paul Fox by DEC 1 – 0 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13525/griffin-alex/profile

#162 Kyle Brady beat #12 Matthew Cimato by DEC 3 – 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/12166/brady-kyle/profile

#62 Gary Dinmore beat #12 Matthew Cimato by DEC 6 – 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/40238/dinmore-gary/profile

#33 Nick Nevills beat #12 Denzel Dejournette by DEC 8 – 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20301/nevills-nick/profile

#24 Bryce Carr beat #13 Matt Reed by DEC 5 – 1 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39936/carr-bryce/profile

#19 Billy Miller beat #13 Doug Vollaro by SV-2 4 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20725/miller-billy/profile

#82 Irvin Enriquez beat #14 Jimmy Gulibon by FALL 1:21 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/40401/enriquez-irvin/profile

#43 Hayden Hidlay beat #14 Mitch Finesilver by DEC 5 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/44595/hidlay-hayden/profile

#23 Kyle Springer beat #14 Jimmy Gulibon by DEC 8 – 5 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/19875/springer-kyle/profile

#43 Colin Holler beat #15 Jake Short by DEC 6 – 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/13485/holler-colin/profile

#33 Zac Hall beat #15 Davion Jeffries by DEC 9 – 3 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/20017/hall-zac/profile

#54 Salvatore Profaci beat #17 Michael Longo by MD 12 – 4 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39825/profaci-salvatore/profile

#53 Ali Naser beat #18 Brendan Fitzgerald by DEC 5 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/23812/naser-ali/profile

#24 Cole Martin beat #18 Emilio Saavedra by FALL 5:13 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39773/martin-cole/profile

#36 Jackson Striggow beat #19 Corey Griego by DEC 5 – 2 http://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39831/striggow-jackson/profile

 

WrestleStat Week 3 Rankings – 2016-2017 Season

There are big changes this week in the rankings, but not what you’re expecting.

Quite awhile ago I tried implementing a “Trending” column in the rankings showing how much a wrestler has gone up or down compared to the previous week. That first version crashed my production site, it was a poor attempt. I have finally got around to fixing this and it’s working great now.

Now, all of the wrestler ranking pages have a “Trend” column as the first column. This shows where the wrestler is compared to the previous week. It will show a green arrow and number when the wrestlers ranking is improving, and will show a red arrow and number when the wrestler is moving down the rankings.

Wrestler Rankings

Since this trending data is available now, I’ll go ahead and highlight some of the big movers at each weight.

125 – Nick Suriano of Penn State breaks into the top 33 at #31 after moving up 11 spots. The true freshman is still undefeated on the season, with his highlight win coming against #11 Connor Schram of Stanford.

133 – Kevin Devoy, JR of Drexel has made a big move up here after his big win against #5 Jered Cortez of Penn State at the Keystone Classic.

141 – Colton McCrystal from Nebraska comes in at #30 after moving up 9 spots from last week. He’s already got 14 matches under his belt this season after participating on both the Daktronics Open, and Harold Nichols Open, then adding 2 dual wins where one of them was over #6 Bryce Meredith of Wyoming.

149 – Two guys here both moved up 5 spots including #20 Jonce Blaylock of Oklahoma State after he knocked off teammate #9 Geo Martinez at the Lindenwood Open. The other mover slides in at #33 in Zac Hall of Michigan.

157 – Two big movers here but not in the same direction. First, #19 Alex Griffin moved up 6 spots, while Jake Short slid down 6 spots to end up at #15 after starting the season just 4 – 4.

165 – There’s a huge move here as Te`Shan Campbell has moved up 20 spots to come in at #18 with his highlight win coming against #11 Austin Matthews.

174 – This is where the biggest mover resides for the week. Coming in at #22 is Jacobe Smith of Oklahoma State after moving up 55 spots! He’s undefeated on the season so far at 11 – 0, with wins over #3 Jordan Rogers, his teammate (MFOR), and a pin over #10 Zac Brunson at the Lindenwood Open.

184 – No big movers here, the weight is still stacked.

197 – Our 2nd biggest mover is here where redshirt freshman Blake Rypel comes up 43 spots to finish at #30.

285 – Lastly, Nick Nevills breaks into the top 33, right at that mark, after moving up 16 spots. Nevills has gone undefeated so far this season, with his best wins to date coming over #32 Joey Goodhart, #14 Nathan Butler, and lastly over #12 Denzel Dejournette of Appalachian State.

Dual Rankings

For Dual Rankings, the “trend” column has not been added yet, but will make it’s debut next week. Until then, there don’t seem to be any real big changes here. Oklahoma State and Penn State are still sitting in a tie for 1st place, with the tie-breaker going to OSU. Ohio State, Iowa, and Missouri round out the top 5.

Tournament Rankings

Same goes for the Tournament Rankings, “Trend” column will be added next week. Big move in tournament rankings as Virginia Tech moves into #3 even though they just lost to #6 (tournament rankings) Missouri. They have more firepower than Missouri which is why they are ranked higher in tournament, despite being ranked lower in dual, (and also losing to them in their dual).

 

Hope you guys enjoy the new “trend” addition. Next week we’ll have that column on the dual and tournament ranking pages as well.

WrestleStat Prediction Engine – Results so far

I thought I’d go through the prediction engine to see how it is performing so far this season.

  • Total matches where both participants are on a Division I roster: 2860
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine got the winner correct: 2006 (70%)
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine got the match result correct (regardless of the win/loss prediction): 1419 (49.6%)
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine picked both the winner AND match result correct: 955 (33.4% of all matches, 47.6% of matches where the win prediction was correct)

Obviously after only 2 weekends of wrestling, that’s a very small sample set. But it does give a good idea on the predictability of this process. I envision the results of the prediction engine will only get better as we get further into the season when wrestlers have more matches, thus their rating becomes closer to the reality. This is especially true for true freshman, and wrestlers that haven’t wrestled a college match until this season.

Sometime this season, I’ll try and come up with a more elaborate reporting style for this. I’ll probably add a page to the website where users will be able to look through all of these results.

Update 11/18/2016 @ 8:00AM Central

It was mentioned/suggested from a PSU fan that since wrestlers in their very first season will not have accurate rankings, it would make more sense to exclude those wrestlers from the prediction engine analysis, since we don’t have sufficient data for them.

I re-ran the process to exclude these wrestlers, here are the results:

  • Total matches where both participants are on a Division I roster: 2081
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine got the winner correct: 1581 (76%)
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine got the match result correct (ie picked DEC correctly, or picked FALL correctly): 1076 (51.7%)
  • Matches where the Prediction Engine picked both the winner AND match result correct: 744 (35.8% of all matches, 47.1% of matches where the win prediction was correct)

As expected, when you start removing those wrestlers where we don’t have sufficient data to do the analysis, our accuracy rate goes up. In this case, we removed 779 match results from our analysis, but if we analyze just that set of wrestlers that didn’t have sufficient data, the Prediction Engine only correctly picked the winners at 54.6% (425/779).

Summary

We improved our predictions by 6% after removing those wrestlers, and also improved out match result type prediction by 2%. These statistics will allow me to make adjustments to the Prediction Engine algorithm to hopefully make it more reliable in the future.

WrestleStat Week 3 Dual Comparisons

Here’s this weekends dual comparisons, starting today.

There are some big matchups this weekend. First one that comes up is the dual between Oklahoma and Michigan.
Another dual that lots of fans are anticipating is between #3 Ohio State and #21 Arizona State. OSU is the heavy favorite here, but it’s the feature matches that are piquing fans interest. Specifically, Snyder vs Hall (where Hall has beaten Snyder before in the past) as well as Bo Jordan vs Zahid Valencia.
The last 2 duals to note are #19 Rutgers vs #29 Princeton in “Battle at the Birthplace” where they will take their dual to High Point Solutions Stadium (where Rutgers plays their football games).
The last one may be the biggest/best matchup of the weekend where #5 Missouri takes on #7 Virginia Tech. These are two teams that are extremely solid top to bottom and looking to make some serious noise at the National Tournament this year.

11/17 #76 George Mason vs #31 Indiana http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/29/george-mason/33/indiana
11/18 #25 Pittsburgh vs #9 Lehigh http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/62/pittsburgh/37/lehigh
11/18 #62 Cal Poly vs #34 Army http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/13/cal-poly/5/army
11/18 #14 Oklahoma vs #10 Michigan http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/56/oklahoma/40/michigan
11/18 #37 Utah Valley vs #35 North Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/72/utah-valley/49/north-dakota-state
11/18 #72 Boise State vs #38 Purdue http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/8/boise-state/64/purdue
11/18 #17 Stanford vs #38 Purdue http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/70/stanford/64/purdue
11/18 #58 Clarion vs #42 Eastern Michigan http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/17/clarion/25/eastern-michigan
11/18 #16 Northern Iowa vs #7 Virginia Tech http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/52/northern-iowa/74/virginia-tech
11/18 #6 Nebraska vs #33 West Virginia http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/45/nebraska/76/west-virginia
11/18 #48 Duke vs #20 Wisconsin http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/24/duke/77/wisconsin
11/18 #9 Lehigh vs #55 Northwestern http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/37/lehigh/53/northwestern
11/19 #21 Arizona State vs #3 Ohio State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/4/arizona-state/55/ohio-state
11/19 #8 Cornell vs #45 Buffalo http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/20/cornell/12/buffalo
11/19 #11 North Carolina State vs #51 Air Force http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/47/north-carolina-state/1/air-force
11/19 #28 Edinboro vs #9 Lehigh http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/26/edinboro/37/lehigh
11/19 #19 Rutgers vs #29 Princeton http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/66/rutgers/63/princeton
11/19 #18 Minnesota vs #24 South Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/42/minnesota/68/south-dakota-state
11/19 #70 The Citadel vs #51 Air Force http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/71/the-citadel/1/air-force
11/19 #27 North Carolina vs #26 Old Dominion http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/46/north-carolina/58/old-dominion
11/20 #5 Missouri vs #7 Virginia Tech http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/43/missouri/74/virginia-tech
11/20 #36 Maryland vs #30 Virginia http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/39/maryland/73/virginia
11/20 #36 Maryland vs #63 Lock Haven http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/39/maryland/38/lock-haven
11/20 #70 The Citadel vs #63 Lock Haven http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/71/the-citadel/38/lock-haven
11/20 #30 Virginia vs #63 Lock Haven http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/73/virginia/38/lock-haven
11/20 #14 Oklahoma vs #35 North Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/56/oklahoma/49/north-dakota-state
11/20 #15 Oregon State vs #10 Michigan http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/59/oregon-state/40/michigan
11/20 #54 Wyoming vs #6 Nebraska http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/78/wyoming/45/nebraska